What No Wes Welker Means For The Denver Broncos In Week One
By Andrew Dill
Oct 20, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker (83) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts free safety Darius Butler (20) after a catch in the fourth quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts defeated the Broncos 39-33. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sportsncos 39-33.Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The Denver Broncos enter week one on a mission, as they were embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year and now get another emotional matchup. Peyton Manning takes on his former team for just the second time ever in this one, as the Indianapolis Colts head to Denver to try to keep up with the Broncos’ high-flying ways.
Indy kept up just fine last time, as the Colts stole the stage in Manning’s return to Indianapolis in a win last year. Manning obviously will hope for a different ending in his new home stadium, while the outcome really doesn’t matter all that much for fantasy football purposes. No, for fantasy owners, all they care about is which players are bound to go nuts in an almost certain shootout.
That line of thinking is stressed even more with the news of Broncos’ wide receiver Wes Welker’s suspension. The slot man will be out this week and (for now) the subsequent three weeks due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. So, with the reliable and productive Welker out, what do the Broncos do to replace him on offense? More importantly, what are fantasy owners to do?
Does This Downgrade Denver’s Offense?
Let’s not completely dismiss Welker’s absence as if he’s some scrub who means nothing. He’s one less chess piece for Denver to use and one less problem for the Colts to lose sleep over. He’s a real pest over the middle of the field and in the red-zone, while his deceptive quickness makes his short receptions basically extended hand-offs. In short, he’s a very efficient player and one of Manning’s most trusted targets.
All that being said, Denver prepared for Welker’s eventual departure (he’s a free agent after this season) by drafting Cody Latimer and signing Emmanuel Sanders. Those guys actually were brought on to immediately help ease the loss of Eric Decker, but the impact should remain the same.
The Running Game
Denver likes to roll with a pretty balanced attack, so they’ll continue to run the ball just as they normally would. However, within that running game comes the targeting of their running backs as receivers out of the backfield. With no Welker on shorter throws, they may opt to give their running backs more chances. Starter Montee Ball obviously benefits the most here, but this could also open the door to backup Ronnie Hillman getting a little extra time on the field, as well.
Target Replacement
Just as the Broncos were planning to replace Eric Decker with the new guys they got, the actual targets Welker would have received will be going elsewhere now, too. It’s probably not going to any one guy, though. Denver is very good at spreading the ball around in general, and losing one of their best wide receivers calls for that, more than ever. Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas stand to benefit the most in terms of targets, as well as the aforementioned running backs. The trickle down impact will be felt then for Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Caldwell, Cody Latimer and possibly even backup tight end Jacob Tamme.
Welker’s Actual Replacement in Fantasy Football
So, with Welker gone and a bunch of would-be spares ready to step up in expanded roles, who can you trust? With an offense that spreads the ball out as much as the Broncos do, the only guys you can truly trust are going to be Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas. However, considering his experience and the fact that he technically will be the teams #2 wide receiver for this game, Emmanuel Sanders figures to be as good of a lock as can be.
Sanders is actually best at deep balls and screen passes, but he has the size and speed to be a real terror in the slot. He’s shaping up as a very dangerous WR3 this week. Cody Latimer is still technically behind Andre Caldwell, who fared decently in place of Welker last year. But Latimer wasn’t an option last year, so I tend to think the rook gets some chances to prove himself early. Because of that, I prefer Latimer’s upside over Caldwell’s supposed role.
The other guy to factor into the equation is Tamme, the tight end. He’s not overly athletic and certainly not explosive, but he and Manning have chemistry and he’s actually really comfortable in the slot. It’s possible the Broncos roll out circa 2012 and use Tamme in place of Welker some of the time. If that happens, he’d have high-end TE2 upside.