Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight predicts that the Colorado Rockies have only a 2% chance of making it to the postseason this year.
“So… you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Well, probably not if we’re being honest.
Despite finishing out a nice 4-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the Rockies are still 11 games back in the NL West and not much of a factor in the wild card picture.
Sitting on a not-terrible 47-52 record at the moment, the predictive models of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website suggest that the Rockies are the underdogs in every game from now until August 5, when they will host the Marlins.
According to the website’s compilation of thousands of computer simulations, the Rockies are projected to end the season third in the NL West with a record of 76-86.
“This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest,” FiveThirtyEight claims. “It updates after each game.”
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The Rockies are in Baltimore today for the second of a three-game series. That’ll be immediately followed by a four- game series on the road against the New York Mets, who are currently sitting on the wild card bubble.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Orioles are favored to win tonight’s game by a margin of 64%-36%.
The big question now looming over the Rockies is what to do in advance of the trade deadline, only days away.
Is it time to begin selling off pieces and looking for ways to build strength and depth on the roster for next year? To that end, it has been reported that the Washington Nationals are interested in center fielder Charlie Blackmon.
Some are also wondering if now might be the time to move Carlos Gonzalez in order to get maximum value for a player who only has one year left on his deal.